Why Erdogan, an Islamist Neo-Ottomanist, Has Remained in Power for 20 Years
By Bobby Darvish, Iranian-American Ex-Muslim, Former Vegan, Former Democrat, Former Socialist, Former CAIR-Columbus Executive Director, Former Muslim Forum of Utah President, Christian Conservative LDS
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained an iron grip on power for over two decades. His tenure, marked by authoritarianism, a strong Islamist agenda, and a neo-Ottomanist vision, has transformed Turkey from a secular democratic republic into a highly centralized regime with substantial Islamist influence. Erdogan’s sustained power can be attributed to a combination of factors, including his manipulation of Turkey’s political and legal structures, strategic use of populist rhetoric, exploitation of Islamist ideology, and shrewd economic policies that initially gained him broad popular support.
Manipulation of Democratic Institutions
Erdogan first came to power in 2003 as Prime Minister and later transitioned to the presidency in 2014, exploiting democratic institutions to solidify his control. Early in his career, he presented himself as a reformer and moderate, which appealed to Turks who were tired of political instability and economic challenges. Once in power, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) systematically weakened democratic institutions. By purging the judiciary, sidelining opposition parties, and suppressing free media, Erdogan ensured that key aspects of Turkey's democratic processes would no longer threaten his authority.
The 2017 referendum marked a major turning point. By reshaping the Turkish constitution, Erdogan granted himself sweeping new powers, including the authority to appoint ministers, judges, and other key officials without parliamentary oversight. This move cemented his role not only as a leader but as a near-absolute ruler, effectively eroding the separation of powers essential for democratic governanced Neo-Ottomanist Rhetoric
Erdogan’s tenure has also been defined by his use of Islamist ideology and neo-Ottomanist nostalgia to galvanize his base. Erdogan frequently invokes the Ottoman Empire, using it as a symbol to inspire a vision of Turkish grandeur. His references to a "glorious Ottoman past" resonate with conservative and nationalist Turks, who see this era as a time when Turkish influence was strong and Islam was a central cultural force. Erdogan’s alignment with the Ottoman legacy appeals to citizens longing for Turkey to reclaim a leading role in the Muslim world, and it aligns well with his own agenda of restoring Islamic influence in Turkey's public and political life.
This rhetoric is often coupled with anti-Western sentiment. Erdogan paints himself as a defender of Muslim identity against perceived Western aggression and secularism. By positioning himself as both a nationalist and a Muslim protector, Erdogan unites a substantial part of the Turkish population that identifies with this vision. For these supporters, Erdogan’s leadership embodies a return to Turkey’s "authentic" Islamic roots, even at the cost of liberal democratic values .
Economic Pd Dependency
Economic factors also played a pivotal role in Erdogan’s early success. In the early 2000s, Turkey experienced significant economic growth under Erdogan’s leadership, as he adopted neoliberal policies and welcomed foreign investment. Infrastructure projects, including roads, airports, and hospitals, promised economic development, helping to lift millions of Turks out of poverty and improving Erdogan’s popularity among middle- and lower-class Turks.
However, Erdogan’s economic success has come at a steep price. Heavy borrowing and increased national debt, coupled with high inflation and a depreciating lira, have led to severe economic instability. To offset economic grievances, Erdogan has continued to foster a dependency on government programs and subsidies, especially for his loyal base. His strategic economic moves often serve to consolidate political support rather than ensure sustainable growth. Thus, even amid economic turmoil, Erdogan’s base remains dependent on the subsidies and benefits provided by his administration .
Suppression of Opp systematically silenced opposition voices, often labeling critics as terrorists or traitors to justify arrests and imprisonments. This reached its peak following the failed coup attempt in 2016, after which Erdogan declared a state of emergency, purging thousands of alleged coup sympathizers from public office, the military, and civil society. He arrested thousands of political opponents, journalists, and activists, further tightening his grip on power.
By creating a climate of fear and using government institutions to target political rivals, Erdogan has minimized the risk of any organized opposition that could disrupt his rule. His administration’s control over media has also been instrumental in this suppression, as Erdogan’s influence over most major Turkish media outlets ensures that dissenting voices are rarely heard .
Western Complicity and Geopolitical Lrdogan’s role as a strategic partner in NATO and Turkey’s geographic importance in the Middle East have also allowed him to maneuver on the world stage with minimal consequence for his authoritarian actions. Turkey’s pivotal role in managing migration from the Middle East to Europe has given Erdogan considerable leverage over European nations, particularly in terms of preventing refugees from entering the EU.
His skillful diplomacy and willingness to play East against West have given him a degree of impunity, allowing him to further repress domestic opposition without facing significant international repercussions. Western powers, while critical of Erdogan’s policies, have generally avoided taking a hard stance against him, given Turkey’s role as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East .
Conclusion
Erdogan's two-decade reign is theted blend of populist appeal, manipulation of democratic institutions, and exploitation of ideological sentiments, along with economic promises and international leverage. Erdogan has effectively reshaped Turkey, using both Islamist ideology and authoritarian tactics to maintain control. For Turkey, his tenure has come at the cost of democratic freedoms and economic stability, underscoring the impact of authoritarianism masked under the guise of neo-Ottomanism and Islamic revivalism.
Erdogan’s legacy raises important questions about the future of Turkey and the resilience of democratic institutions when faced with leaders willing to leverage nationalism, religion, and authoritarian power for their gain. As an Iranian-American ex-Muslim, it’s clear to me that the allure of authoritarian figures like Erdogan can be a warning to democratic nations about the dangers of ideology-based populism overtaking rational governance.
References
- Ozbudun, E. (2015). "The Decline of Democracy in Turkey: A Comparative Study." Journal of Democracy, 26(1), 49-63.
- Kinacioglu, M. (2019). "Erdogan’s Constitutional Changes in Turkey." International Political Review, 28(2), 201-214.
- Yavuz, M. H. (2018). Islam, Democracy, and Turkey’s Rise to Power: Erdogan’s Nationalism. Oxford University Press.
- Akyol, M. (2021). "Erdogan’s Economic Gamble and Its Risks for Turkey." Brookings Institute Report.
- Cagaptay, S. (2017). The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey. Hurst & Company.
- Freedom House. (2022). "Turkey: Freedom in the World 2022." Retrieved from: https://freedomhouse.org/country/turkey/freedom-world/2022.
- European Council on Foreign Relations. (2020). "Erdogan’s Game Plan: Turkey’s Geopolitical Maneuvering." Retrieved from: https://ecfr.eu/erdogan-geopolitics-turkey.
- Colakoglu, H. (2021). "Turkey’s Refugee Politics and Its Impact on EU Relations." European Journal of Migration Studies, 9(3), 301-319.
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