Erdogan’s Islamist Neo-Ottomanism: A Path to Economic Ruin for Turkey
By Bobby Darvish, Iranian-American Ex-Muslim, Former Vegan, Former Democrat, Former Socialist, Former CAIR-Columbus Executive Director, Former Muslim Forum of Utah President, Christian Conservative LDS
As an Iranian-American ex-Muslim, and former leader within both the Muslim Forum of Utah and CAIR-Columbus, I have experienced firsthand the struggles and contradictions that arise from political Islam’s dangerous integration into governance and national identity. Turkey, once a promising, secular republic, now stands on a precarious economic cliff, driven by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vision of Islamist Neo-Ottomanism. Erdogan’s agenda, which seeks to revive the Ottoman influence and turn Turkey into a hub of Islamic power, is accelerating Turkey’s slide into economic and societal disaster, transforming it from a once-thriving nation to the brink of Third or Fourth World status.
Erdogan’s shift toward Islamism has deeply affected Turkey's economy, altering its political and trade alliances and increasing inflation, unemployment, and isolation. Erdogan’s Neo-Ottomanism not only represents a betrayal of Atatürk’s vision of a secular and modern state, but also drives economic policies that jeopardize Turkey’s manufacturing, trade capabilities, and financial stability. Let me explain how these elements of Neo-Ottomanism are slowly, yet steadily, steering Turkey toward economic ruin.
Neo-Ottomanism's Impact on Turkey's Manufacturing and Trade
Turkey's manufacturing sector, which relies heavily on foreign investment and a stable economy, has long benefited from access to European markets and integration into global supply chains. However, Erdogan’s agenda, which seeks to sever Turkey from the West while drawing it closer to Islamic nations, threatens to unravel these crucial relationships.
Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has distanced itself from its traditional European partners, not only through hostile rhetoric but also through inconsistent and antagonistic policies that concern potential investors. The result has been a significant decline in foreign investment, a critical component for maintaining and expanding Turkey’s manufacturing sectore gradual alienation of European markets, which are Turkey’s largest buyers, Turkish goods face increasing tariffs and bans, which will make it far harder for Turkish companies to compete internationally .
Furthdogan’s ideological opposition to Western standards is also problematic. Turkey’s manufacturers, which export significant amounts of machinery, textiles, and other goods, must comply with stringent European standards for quality and safety. If Erdogan continues to prioritize Islamist values over these requirements, Turkish products will likely be banned in Western markets. This shift could lead to the collapse of Turkey’s largest export sectors, effectively cutting off access to the very economies that helped fuel its growth over recent decades.
Islamist Policies Leading to Economic Mismanagement
Neo-Ottomanism’s grip on Turkish governance has already resulted in unprecedented economic mismanagement. Erdogan’s disdain for secular, Western financial policies is evident in his insistence on keeping interest rates artificially low, which has led to high inflation and currency devaluation . With the Turkiseriencing significant devaluation, the purchasing power of Turkish citizens has plummeted, further increasing the cost of imports and weakening the domestic economy.
Erdogan’s policies directly conflict with sound economic management. His Islamist stance has pushed out professionals who might oppose his ideological agenda in favor of loyalists who lack the competence to manage the complexities of Turkey’s economy. This has caused inflation to rise well into double digits, severely hurting the middle and working classes, and making basic goods unaffordable for many. With no meaningful opposition left to counterbalance Erdogan’s decision-making, the economy’s prospects continue to worsen.
The Dangerous Shift in Turkish Exports and the Decline of Innovation
In the wake of Erdogan’s isolationist policies, Turkey has attempted to redirect its trade toward nations aligned with its Islamist vision. Yet, these countries often lack the economic capacity to replace Turkey’s Western trade partners. Middle Eastern and North African nations that Erdogan seeks to woo are economically volatile, politically unstable, and insufficient as sole trade partners for a country with Turkey’s population and needs.
Turkey’s ability to manufacture and innovate will also be impaired by the Islamist push. For decades, Turkey attracted skilled professionals and fostered a relatively open society that supported scientific and technological progress. Neo-Ottomanism and its Islamist restrictions on academic freedom and civil liberties, however, are making Turkey less appealing to innovators and entrepreneurs . The migration of Turkishs, engineers, and business leaders to Western countries speaks volumes about the narrowing prospects for intellectual and economic growth within Turkey. This brain drain only accelerates Turkey’s slide into a technological backwater, crippling its potential to compete in the global economy.
The Future: A Third or Fourth World Turkey
Unless there is a reversal of Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman policies, Turkey’s economy will likely slide into Third or even Fourth World status, with chronic poverty, severe unemployment, and underdevelopment. Erdogan’s vision not only neglects economic realities but actively works against them. By enforcing Islamist policies that alienate the West, Turkey will find itself cut off from the world’s strongest economies, left to rely on nations that are themselves unstable and incapable of supporting Turkey’s massive economic needs.
The Neo-Ottoman dream has already pushed Turkey into a state of economic fragility, and the more Erdogan clings to this path, the harder it will be for Turkey to recover. Erdogan’s Neo-Ottomanism, which tries to turn the clock back to Ottoman glory, will only reduce Turkey’s standing from that of a Second World country with significant promise to one of a Third or even Fourth World nation struggling to maintain basic economic and social stability. Turkey’s descent, driven by Islamism and the abandonment of rational economic policies, should serve as a warning to other nations that seek to integrate extremist ideologies into their governments at the expense of economic well-being.
Citations
Tanchum, Micha’el. “Turkey’s Economic Perils and the Path to a New Crisis.” Middle East Institute, 2023. www.mei.edu/publications/turkeys-economic-perils-and-path-new-crisis
Barkey, Henri J. “Turkey’s Foreign Relations and Economic Stagnation Under Erdogan.” Council on Foreign Relations, 2022. www.cfr.org/turkey-foreign-relations-economic-stagnation
Peker, Emre. “Erdogan’s Interest Rate Experiment is Sinking Turkey’s Economy.” The Wall Street Journal, 2022. www.wsj.com/erdogan-interest-rate-experiment
Aydintasbas, Asli. “The Exodus of Turkish Talent: How Neo-Ottomanism Hurts Turkey's Innovation.” European Council on Foreign Relations, 2023. www.ecfr.eu/exodus-turkish-talent
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